U.S. crude inventories fall 4.930 million barrels amid Middle East supply risks

Key Facts

The American Petroleum Institute estimated that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 4.930 million barrels in its release dated October 20, 2026, exceeding expectations for a draw of 1.300 million barrels, according to Investing.com's economic calendar. The decline followed a larger draw of 11.120 million barrels the previous week, extending the inventory decline, albeit at a slower pace. The estimate was released amid concerns about Middle East supplies, which Reuters said included risks to shipping in the Red Sea. The concerns also included threats to Saudi oil infrastructure, according to the agency, alongside risks to tanker traffic. In the United States, Investing.com linked the recent large draws to damage to U.S. Gulf Coast production from Hurricane Isaias.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration's report published on October 15 recorded a decline in commercial crude inventories during the week ended October 9, a period preceding the institute's latest estimate. The reported government draw was 8.6 million barrels, bringing commercial crude inventories, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, to 415.6 million barrels at the end of that week. Those inventories stood 3% below their five-year average, according to the agency's weekly summary. Total commercial petroleum inventories fell by 13.4 million barrels over the week, also excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. That brought the total to 1,224.0 million barrels, compared with 1,237.4 million barrels in the week ended October 2, according to the supply balance table.

The crude draw in the week ended October 9 coincided with a decline in U.S. production, which the Energy Information Administration estimated at 13,679 thousand barrels per day. Production had stood at 13,979 thousand barrels per day in the week ended October 2, representing a weekly decline of 300 thousand barrels per day. U.S. crude oil imports fell over the same period to 6,049 thousand barrels per day, according to the agency's weekly supply table. That compared with imports of 6,840 thousand barrels per day the previous week, a decline of 791 thousand barrels per day in incoming crude flows. Alongside the declines in domestic production and imports, the volume of crude processed by U.S. refineries increased during the week of the inventory draw, according to the same report.

U.S. refinery crude inputs totaled 16,615 thousand barrels per day in the week ended October 9, compared with 16,480 thousand barrels per day the previous week. Inputs thus rose by 135 thousand barrels per day over the week, while refinery utilization increased to 93.5% from 92.7%, according to the Energy Information Administration. Among petroleum products, gasoline inventories rose by 3.5 million barrels during the week, moving in the opposite direction to commercial crude oil inventories. Despite that increase, gasoline stocks remained 4% below their five-year average, according to the agency's weekly summary for the same period. Distillate inventories recorded a weekly draw of 2.5 million barrels, falling to 102.6 million barrels from 105.1 million barrels in the week ended October 2.

Against the backdrop of supply risks, London Stock Exchange Group analysts said in a note cited by Reuters that "attacks on tankers have spread beyond the Strait of Hormuz." In its October Short-Term Energy Outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration estimated average regional crude production outages during September at about 4.8 million barrels per day. That compared with an average of 5.8 million barrels per day in August, according to the agency's monthly outlook. The outlook assumes restrictions on oil flows from the Middle East will persist through the fourth quarter of 2026, alongside a decline in production outages from the previous month. The agency is scheduled to release its next inventory report on October 21, 2026, while its standard publication schedule is Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. U.S. Eastern time, with exceptions for holidays.