EL7.AI
CommoditiesMedium•20 October 2026•
4 min read

U.S. crude inventories fall 4.93 million barrels, API estimates

Key Facts

1The American Petroleum Institute estimated that crude inventories fell 4.93 million barrels in the week ended October 16.
2The previous week's crude inventory draw totaled 11.12 million barrels, according to Oilprice, citing the institute.
3The government reading for the week ended October 9 showed commercial inventories falling 8.6 million barrels to 415.6 million barrels, 3% below the five-year average.
4The EIA forecast an average Brent price of $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, up $14 from the previous month's forecast.

The American Petroleum Institute estimated that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 4.93 million barrels in the week ended October 16, according to Oilprice. The latest draw followed a decline of 11.12 million barrels the previous week, extending the inventory decline at a slower pace. The institute's estimate covers crude inventories excluding oil held in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, according to its definition of the weekly bulletin's scope. In that definition, the institute says "crude inventories include stocks held at production sites but exclude stocks held in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve." The latest decline comes after the most recent government reading put U.S. commercial crude inventories below their five-year average.

For the week ended October 9, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a decline of 8.6 million barrels in commercial crude inventories, which ended the period at 415.6 million barrels, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. That level was 3% below the five-year average, according to the government's weekly summary. At Cushing, inventories rose to 26.6 million barrels over the same period, moving in the opposite direction to nationwide commercial inventories. Cushing stocks stood at 24.7 million barrels in the week ended October 2, before posting a weekly increase of 1.9 million barrels. U.S. crude production stood at 13,679 thousand barrels per day in the week ended October 9. That compared with production of 13,979 thousand barrels per day in the week ended October 2, according to the EIA's weekly series.

In petroleum products, U.S. gasoline inventories rose to 208.3 million barrels in the week ended October 9, according to the government's inventory table. Stocks stood at 204.7 million barrels in the week ended October 2, while the EIA reported the weekly increase at 3.5 million barrels. By contrast, distillate inventories fell to 102.6 million barrels over the same government reporting period, moving in the opposite direction to gasoline. The weekly distillate draw was 2.5 million barrels, compared with inventories of 105.1 million barrels a week earlier. The decline in commercial crude inventories that week thus coincided with a drop in distillate stocks, while gasoline and Cushing inventories rose.

On the outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its forecast for the average Brent crude price in the fourth quarter of 2026 to $105 a barrel in its October report. The new forecast was $14 a barrel higher than the agency's projection the previous month, according to the Short-Term Energy Outlook. In a separate October report, the International Energy Agency forecast a decline in global oil demand in the fourth quarter of the same year. The agency put the expected decline at 2.5 million barrels per day compared with the same period a year earlier. For 2026 as a whole, the agency forecast an average year-on-year decline in global demand of 2.6 million barrels per day.

In trading on Tuesday, October 20, Brent fell below $109 a barrel, according to the Associated Press. The crude benchmark had approached $112 a barrel that morning before retreating later in the session. On U.S. product supplies, the EIA warned in its October outlook of difficulties facing distillate importers on the East Coast. The agency said importers would struggle to increase imports enough to restore inventories to levels closer to normal. The EIA linked the warning to the coming winter heating season, as the latest government reading showed a weekly decline in distillate inventories.

Companies participating in the American Petroleum Institute's bulletin submit their data voluntarily, according to the institute's description of how it compiles its weekly survey. These companies send a copy of the data they submit to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, which issues the government's inventory report. Both the institute and the EIA publish weekly estimates, according to the institute, as part of their monitoring of U.S. oil inventories. The next milestone is the release of the EIA's weekly government report, normally scheduled for Wednesday. The agency lists 10:30 a.m. U.S. Eastern time as its regular release time, with exceptions for holiday weeks specified in its calendar.