EL7.AI
ForexMediumUpdated×2•Originally published 21 October 2026•Updated 21 October 2026•
1 min read

Markets Price 80% Chance of RBNZ Hike to 3.00% Ahead of CPI Data

Key Facts

1The New Zealand inflation report has put a spotlight on market pricing for a hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) stance.

Markets expect New Zealand's annual inflation to slow to 3.8% in the third quarter of 2026. Financial reports indicate that swaps are pricing in an 80% probability of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) implementing a 25-basis-point rate hike to 3.00% at its upcoming meeting.

This outlook follows persistent price pressures despite the projected slowdown, supported by a Business NZ PMI reading of 56.5 on October 15, 2026. Additionally, the trade balance showed a deficit of 1.971 billion on October 18, 2026, reinforcing expectations for a hawkish policy path to support the local currency.

The RBNZ Interest Rate Decision is scheduled for October 28, 2026. Traders will monitor whether the actual CPI data aligns with the 3.8% forecast to confirm the likelihood of a hike to the 3.00% target.

Latest Updates · 1

  1. Notable·

    Update: The NZD/USD pair has risen for five consecutive days to trade above 0.5700 on October 21, 2026, reaching its highest level since September 23, 2026. This rally occurs as markets await inflation data to confirm the RBNZ's interest rate trajectory.

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