Steel Dynamics Forecast Third-Quarter Earnings of Up to $5.38 a Share
Key Facts
Steel Dynamics, in guidance issued in September, forecast diluted earnings per share for the third quarter of 2026 in a range of $5.34 to $5.38. The range puts expected earnings per share above the $2.74 recorded in the third quarter of 2025, according to the company's earnings release for that period. It also exceeds diluted earnings per share of $3.69 in the second quarter of 2026. In its guidance statement, the company had forecast an improvement in steel segment profitability from the previous quarter. It linked the expected improvement to wider margins across the segment's operations and record shipments.
On prices and costs, the September guidance forecast higher realized steel selling prices alongside lower scrap costs. The company said in the statement that drivers of the expected improvement included "lower scrap costs," alongside improved selling prices. These forecasts followed an increase in the steel segment's average external selling price to $1,298 per ton in the second quarter of 2026. The average price rose $105 per ton from the previous quarter, according to the second-quarter earnings release. The actual increase in selling prices thus preceded the September guidance, which forecast continued price improvement, lower scrap costs and wider margins during the third quarter.
Steel Dynamics reported net income of $534 million in the second quarter of 2026, according to its earnings release for that period. Net sales reached $6.1 billion, while steel shipments hit a record 3.7 million tons. Those results followed net income of $403 million in the first quarter of the same year. First-quarter diluted earnings per share were $2.78, before rising in the following quarter. The second-quarter results thus showed increases in net income and earnings per share from the start of the year, alongside the higher external selling price and record steel shipments reported by the company.
On a year-over-year basis, the company reported net income of about $404 million for the third quarter of 2025, according to its earnings release for that period. Net sales at the time were $4.8 billion, alongside operating income of $508 million. Sales and net income in that period were below the levels the company subsequently recorded in the second quarter of 2026. The September guidance for the third quarter linked the expected increase in steel segment profitability to margins and shipments. The improvement described by the company combines higher selling prices and lower scrap costs, after the second quarter had already seen a quarterly increase in the average selling price.
In its steel fabrication business, Steel Dynamics said in its September guidance statement that its order backlog was about 50% above year-earlier third-quarter levels. It said those orders extended into the first quarter of 2027, covering work beyond the end of 2026. Alongside its earnings guidance, the company announced that it had repurchased $261 million of shares during the third quarter through the issuance of the September statement. That amount covers purchases completed up to that point in the quarter, according to the statement. The board also approved a cash dividend for the third quarter of 2026 of $0.53 per common share, according to the company's dividend announcement.
The steel fabrication order backlog described by the company in September extends beyond the quarter covered by its earnings guidance. It said in the statement that the backlog "extends into the first quarter of 2027." For the steel segment, the guidance addressed an expected improvement in profitability from the previous quarter, supported by prices, costs and shipment volumes. The next date announced by the company to discuss its third-quarter 2026 results is its earnings conference call scheduled for October 20, 2026. It set the start of the call at 11 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time, according to its conference call and webcast announcement.