Ryanair chief expects European airfares to rise by up to 20%

Key Facts

Ryanair Chief Executive Michael O'Leary forecast that European airfares would rise by 10% or 15%, and possibly 20%, next year, in remarks made in October 2026. Reuters quoted O'Leary at a press conference in Brussels describing the anticipated increase as potentially "the biggest increase in history", reflecting the scale of the rise he expects. The forecast follows a 6% decline in the airline's average fares in the quarter ended in June, according to its quarterly results. The airline had raised fares by 10% in the year ended in March 2026, recovering a 7% decline in the previous year. Its fares thus shifted from an increase over the past financial year to a decline in the following quarter, before its chief forecast increases across the European market next year.

Ryanair's results for the quarter ended in June 2026 showed net profit falling 34% to 538 million euros, compared with 820 million euros in the same period a year earlier. The profit decline coincided with an increase in revenue to 4.38 billion euros from 4.34 billion euros in the comparable quarter. Revenue grew 1%, while operating costs rose at a faster pace of 11%, according to the airline's results statement. Those costs reached 3.81 billion euros during the quarter, up from 3.42 billion euros in the corresponding period a year earlier. The increase in expenses, coupled with lower fares, left the airline reporting lower profit despite higher revenue in the same financial period.

On fuel, Ryanair said in its earnings filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission that unhedged jet fuel prices doubled during the first quarter to 150 dollars a barrel. The filing, published in July 2026, said the airline had hedged 80% of its fuel requirements for the financial year ending in March 2027. The hedging contracts fixed the price of those requirements at 67 dollars a barrel, compared with the unhedged fuel price it faced during the quarter. For the following financial year, the proportion of fuel hedged was lower, at 15%, according to the same filing. The airline set its hedged price for that year at 85 dollars a barrel, a higher price with less coverage than the contracts for the current financial year.

Ryanair ended the financial year in March 2026 with net profit before exceptional items of 2.26 billion euros, according to its annual results announced in May. The airline compared that profit with 1.61 billion euros in the year ended in March 2025, recording an annual increase of 40%. On the day those results were announced, 18 May 2026, its shares initially fell 3% following the release of the figures, according to Reuters coverage. The shares then turned higher, gaining 5.5% after more upbeat comments during the airline's annual results call with analysts. Those gains preceded the release of results for the quarter ended in June, which showed a decline in profitability compared with the same period a year earlier.

Operationally, Ryanair carried 61.3 million passengers in the quarter ended in June 2026, according to its quarterly results statement, compared with 57.9 million a year earlier. Passenger numbers grew 6% during the quarter alongside the recorded decline in average fares, while revenue rose at a slower rate than traffic. In August, the airline reported passenger numbers of 22.2 million, an annual increase of 6%, according to its monthly traffic disclosure. Traffic continued to grow in September, when passenger numbers exceeded 20.1 million, according to the airline's disclosure for that month. September's annual increase was 4%, a slower pace than the growth recorded in August, with passenger numbers continuing to rise compared with the previous year.

Looking ahead, Ryanair cut its passenger traffic forecast for the financial year ending in March 2027 to 214 million, according to its announcement accompanying the August figures. The airline had previously targeted 216 million passengers for the same financial year before revising its annual traffic plan. It attributed the reduction to its desire to limit exposure to unhedged winter fuel costs, linking the adjustment in planned traffic volumes to energy bill risks. Across the European aviation market, Ryanair had forecast in its annual results published in May 2026 that short-haul capacity constraints would persist. The airline set a timeframe extending to at least 2030 for those constraints to continue, according to the forecast in its annual results statement.