GeopoliticsMedium•20 October 2026•
4 min read

Rubio heads to India as U.S. launches 60-day tariff review

Key Facts

1Rubio announced a 60-day U.S. review to consider potential new tariffs.
2U.S. legislation allows tariffs of up to 100% on the largest importers of Russian oil.
3India imports more than 85% of its crude oil needs.
4Indian goods exports to the United States totaled about $51 billion during April–September, compared with $45.73 billion in the same period a year earlier.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio heads to India on Tuesday to discuss the trade agreement and Russian oil purchases, following the announcement of a 60-day U.S. review to consider potential new tariffs, Reuters reported. The visit comes after President Donald Trump exempted India on the preceding Friday from potential tariffs tied to its purchases of Russian crude. U.S. legislation allows tariffs of up to 100% on the largest importers of Russian oil, putting energy trade among the issues on the agenda. Rubio said efforts to complete the trade agreement between Washington and New Delhi contributed to the decision to grant the exemption. He added that India was diversifying its oil imports away from Russian crude. The diplomatic initiative thus follows the exemption decision and coincides with the U.S. administration's review of potential new tariffs.

India is the second-largest importer of Russian oil after China, according to Reuters, and imports more than 85% of its crude oil needs. Explaining the consideration given to energy-importing countries' circumstances, Rubio pointed to the difficulty some countries face in securing alternative supplies. He also discussed the constraints their geographical locations impose on available supply options. "Geography is a reality," he said, linking the U.S. administration's position to the circumstances surrounding access to energy. In the background, a U.S. executive order issued in February includes a mechanism to monitor whether India resumes importing Russian oil directly or indirectly. The order, published by the White House, allows recommendations for additional measures as part of the monitoring of those imports.

On trade, Indian goods exports to the United States totaled about $51 billion during April–September of the current year, according to India's state broadcaster. That compares with exports of $45.73 billion during the same period a year earlier. For Indian exports to all markets, the Ministry of Commerce and Industry said goods exports totaled about $44.40 billion in September 2026. Exports in the same month of 2025 stood at $36.08 billion, according to the ministry's statement. On the U.S. side, the goods trade deficit with India totaled $58.4 billion in 2025, according to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. That deficit rose 27.8% from 2024, providing the trade backdrop to the planned talks between the two sides.

The White House previously announced in February a reduction in the reciprocal tariff on India as part of the trade agreement process between the two countries. The announcement set the target tariff at 18%, down from a previous level of 25%, according to the fact sheet published by the White House at the time. In the same month, the joint trade statement published by India's Ministry of Commerce and Industry outlined New Delhi's intention to purchase a range of U.S. products. The planned purchases included energy products, as well as aircraft and aircraft parts. They also included precious metals, technology products and coking coal, according to the joint statement. These announced arrangements date back to February, while officials' current remarks concern completing negotiations on the comprehensive trade agreement.

Rubio and other officials said the comprehensive trade agreement was "nearing completion," according to Reuters, raising the possibility of its signing during the planned visit. On the Indian side, Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal said negotiations were "moving in the right direction." Agrawal added that the two sides were working to finalize the agreement as soon as possible, India's state broadcaster reported. These talks follow an earlier visit by Rubio to India in May. During that visit, he attended the Quad foreign ministers' meeting hosted by New Delhi, according to India's state broadcaster.

Tuesday's announced schedule begins with a bilateral meeting with Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar in Mumbai in the afternoon, according to India's state broadcaster. After completing his meetings in the city, Rubio travels the following day to Jamnagar in Gujarat. His planned meetings also include Mukesh Ambani, chairman of Reliance Industries, according to Reuters. The company operates the refining complex in Jamnagar, which is on the U.S. secretary of state's itinerary. The schedule thus combines talks with his Indian counterpart and meetings with the refining sector, while signing the agreement during the visit remains a possibility raised by officials' remarks that it is nearing completion.