Iran's Revolutionary Guards warn of linking Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb and Suez in response to U.S. action
Key Facts
Iranian Revolutionary Guards spokesman Hossein Mohebi warned that any new U.S. action would face a stronger Iranian response, raising the prospect of linking the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Suez Canal as part of Tehran's action. In an interview with the Tehran Times reported by FXStreet on the evening of 19 October 2026, Mohebi said the warning extended even to limited U.S. action. He added that such action would cause a "serious global energy crisis." Referring to the shipping lanes, he said: "We have not yet linked the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Suez Canal." The spokesman thus tied his warning about energy transport routes to Iran's response to any new U.S. move.
The remarks followed a slowdown in ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, according to Kpler data cited by Reuters. On Saturday, 5 ships carrying commodities passed through the strait. The data recorded no crossings on Sunday. On oil flows, the U.S. Energy Information Administration estimated that 4.9 million barrels per day of oil and petroleum liquids passed through Hormuz in the second quarter of 2026. That compares with flows of 21.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025, before the decline recorded in the agency's estimates for the waterway.
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, according to the Associated Press. It carries the southern route for oil tankers loaded on Saudi Arabia's Red Sea coast. These tankers head south through the strait on voyages to Asia. Tankers bound for Europe sail north through the Suez Canal, according to the agency. Bab el-Mandeb and Suez, both mentioned in Mohebi's remarks, thus lie on the routes carrying Saudi oil from the Red Sea to Asian and European destinations.
At Bab el-Mandeb, flows of oil and petroleum liquids rose to 8.1 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates. Flows had stood at 5.4 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025. The increase in flows through the strait came during the period in which flows through Hormuz declined. The agency says closing the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline would force oil tankers to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope. That route adds about 15 days to the voyage from the Arabian Sea to Europe in a scenario involving the closure of the canal and pipeline.
In the oil market, West Texas Intermediate crude stood at $98.00 per barrel at the time of writing of FXStreet's report on the evening of 19 October 2026. The crude was down 0.95% on the day, according to the website. In an earlier price reading, Brent crude stood at $105.48 per barrel at the time of writing of a report published by Investing.com, citing OilPrice, dated 16 October 2026. West Texas Intermediate crude stood at $97.40 per barrel in that report. The U.S. crude price in the 19 October reading was above its level in the 16 October report, despite the daily decline recorded when the latest report was published.
On the diplomatic front, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called on countries in the region to work towards a joint security arrangement, according to Reuters. His call came during a press conference with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Tehran. Reuters had reported on 9 October 2026 that Tehran was reviewing the U.S. response to an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The proposal called for reopening it within 7 days. The U.S. Energy Information Administration is scheduled to release its next Short-Term Energy Outlook on 10 November 2026, according to the date announced on the October release page.