German producer prices rise 6.7% in September, exceeding analysts' forecasts
Key Facts
German producer prices rose 6.7% year on year in September, according to the Federal Statistics Office, exceeding analysts' forecasts as energy and intermediate goods prices increased. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected an annual increase of 6.2%, leaving the actual reading above their estimates for the month. On a monthly basis, producer prices rose 1.9% from August, alongside a jump in producer energy prices. Excluding energy, the annual increase was 3.2%, below the rise in the headline index over the same period. The monthly increase excluding energy was limited to 0.1%, compared with the broader rise in overall producer prices.
Producer energy prices rose 14.9% year on year in September, according to details in the German Federal Statistics Office's statement. These prices increased 5.8% from August, outpacing the monthly rise in overall producer prices in the same month. Within the energy category, petroleum product prices jumped 51.3% from September of the previous year, exceeding the annual increase for the energy category as a whole. Petroleum product prices also rose 8.2% month on month, likewise exceeding the category's monthly increase. The statistics office linked the rise in petroleum product prices to the conflict in Iran and the Middle East, identifying the factor associated with the price surge.
Increases within the energy sector extended to natural gas distribution prices, which rose 15.0% year on year in September, according to the office. Outside the sector, intermediate goods recorded an annual increase of 6.4%, with varying rises among the materials in this category. Prices for copper and semi-finished copper products rose 31.4% from the same month of the previous year, exceeding the overall increase in intermediate goods. Basic chemical prices also increased 11.3% year on year, outpacing the rise in the broader category. The increase in prices for copper and semi-finished copper products exceeded that for basic chemicals, although prices in both categories rose over the same reference period.
Among other goods categories, capital goods prices rose 2.4% year on year in September, according to the Federal Statistics Office. Durable consumer goods prices recorded an annual increase of 2.2%, a slower pace than the rise in capital goods. By contrast, non-durable consumer goods prices fell 1.8% from September of the previous year, diverging from the other two categories. The decline included producer food prices, which fell 4.1% year on year, according to details in the statement. The fall in food prices exceeded the decline in the non-durable goods category as a whole, compared with the annual increases recorded for capital and durable goods.
At the consumer level, German inflation stood at 3.3% year on year in September, according to a separate statement from the Federal Statistics Office. The rate had stood at 2.9% in August, with annual price growth accelerating the following month. Core consumer inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, was 2.4% year on year in September. Consumer price growth excluding these two categories was therefore below the headline inflation rate recorded in the same month. September's headline consumer inflation rate was also above both its August level and September's core reading, with the scope of comparison differing in each case.
Ruth Brand, president of the Federal Statistics Office, said in comments on consumer inflation that "energy price developments were responsible for the rise in the inflation rate." Brand again attributed the increase in consumer inflation to energy price movements, alongside the increases also recorded in producer energy prices in September. These developments come ahead of the next monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank's Governing Council, scheduled to take place in Frankfurt. The council concludes its meeting on 29 October 2026, according to the ECB's published official meeting schedule. The conclusion of the monetary policy meeting will be followed by a press conference on the same day, according to the official schedule.