Carrefour cuts operating margin improvement forecast to 0–15 basis points on disruption in France

Key Facts

Carrefour cut its forecast for operating margin improvement in 2026 to between 0 and 15 basis points from a previous target of 25 basis points, according to its third-quarter sales statement. The group maintained its forecast for growth in recurring operating profit for the year while revising its margin, earnings per share and cash flow targets. It now expects adjusted earnings per share to be stable or grow slightly, compared with its previous forecast for high-single-digit growth. For net free cash flow, the company revised its annual forecast from slight growth to a slight decline. The revisions came amid disruption to store operations in France, where the company said closures, weaker footfall and higher security and logistics costs had affected its business.

Chief Executive Alexandre Bompard described conditions in France as "an unprecedented situation", pointing in the company's statement to uncertainty over consumer spending and the ability to open stores normally. Carrefour said in its third-quarter results presentation that the disruption had led to shorter opening hours at its French stores. The fallout also included precautionary closures and difficulties for shoppers reaching stores, according to the same presentation. On operating expenses, the group identified security and logistics among the items whose costs had risen because of the disruption. The company's description of the situation encompassed pressure on store traffic and operating costs, while Bompard linked the uncertainty to stores' continued ability to operate and the trajectory of consumer spending.

On sales, Carrefour reported group like-for-like growth of 2.3% in the third quarter of 2026, according to the results presentation published by the company. That compared with growth of 2.1% in the first half of the year, when the group recorded a slower increase in like-for-like sales. Total third-quarter sales reached 22,694 million euros, including value-added tax and before application of the accounting standard for hyperinflation. The group's e-commerce business grew 18% over the same period, according to the results presentation, alongside the increase in like-for-like sales. In France, like-for-like sales rose 1.2% in the third quarter, and Carrefour said growth extended across all store formats it operates in the French market.

Outside France, Carrefour recorded increases in like-for-like sales in both Spain and Brazil during the third quarter, according to the geographical breakdown in its results presentation. In Spain, sales rose 2.1%, a performance the group attributed to higher sales volumes during the period. In Brazil, like-for-like sales grew 1.4%, with improving commercial momentum at the Atacadao chain, according to the company. The reported growth rate in Spain was therefore higher than in Brazil, while both markets recorded like-for-like sales increases. Carrefour identified higher volumes in Spain and improving commercial activity at Atacadao in Brazil as the factors supporting performance in those markets.

Results for the first half of 2026 had shown group recurring operating profit rising to 757 million euros, according to the results statement published for that period. Profit in the first half of 2025 was about 727 million euros, taking the annual increase reported by Carrefour to 4%. Adjusted earnings per share rose to 0.49 euros in the first half of 2026 from 0.41 euros in the corresponding period a year earlier. The group also reported cost savings of 490 million euros during the first half as part of its procurement and operating efforts. Those savings included procurement gains and improved operating efficiency, while the annual savings target set out in the first-half results statement was a billion euros for 2026.

In its updated investment decisions, Carrefour cut its annual capital expenditure target to 1.6 billion euros, according to the third-quarter sales statement. The previous capital expenditure target was 1.7 billion euros for 2026, before the revision announced alongside the group's updated financial forecasts. The company said it would reduce investment in France through the end of the year as part of the adjustment to its annual capital spending programme. The reduction in French investment comes amid the uncertainty Bompard described over consumer spending and the ability to operate stores normally. Carrefour set 17 November 2026 as the date to present its strategy for hypermarkets in France, the next announced milestone for the group's plans in the French market.