Citgo Raises EBITDA Forecast to $7.7–8 Billion
Key Facts
Citgo Petroleum raised its forecast for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization for 2026 to between $7.7 billion and $8 billion, according to an update seen by Bloomberg. The company had projected full-year EBITDA of $5.8 billion in estimates published in August alongside its second-quarter results. The revision puts its annual profitability target above the level announced at the time, amid the refining market conditions described in the document. Citgo said "current refining markets continue to reflect a tight supply-demand balance and a geopolitical risk premium." The company thus linked its assessment of refining markets to both the balance between available supply and demand and the geopolitical risks those markets carry.
The forecast revision follows second-quarter 2026 results in which Citgo posted earnings of $936 million, supported by strong refining margins, according to EL7's previous coverage of the company's results. EBITDA totaled about $1.38 billion in the same period, according to the results summary published on Citgo's website. For the corresponding period a year earlier, the company had reported net income of $100 million in the second quarter of 2025. EBITDA stood at $325 million at that time, according to the earnings release for that quarter. Citgo also recorded adjusted EBITDA of $346 million during the same period of 2025. Unadjusted EBITDA in the second quarter of this year therefore exceeded its level in the corresponding period, while the earnings coverage attributed the strong profits to refining margins.
On the operational front, average total throughput at Citgo's refineries fell to 820,000 barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026, according to Investing's coverage of the company's results. That compared with 851,000 barrels per day in the first quarter of the same year, marking a decline in throughput between the two periods. The company's assets include the Lake Charles, Lemont and Corpus Christi refineries, according to the company profile published on Citgo's website. Those refineries have a combined processing capacity of 829,000 barrels per day, according to the company. Within that network, the Lemont refinery is specifically designed to process heavy crude oil, Citgo says in its overview of its refining assets.
On marketing refinery output and transporting it to customers, Citgo announced a plan to deliver gasoline from its Lemont refinery to customers in New York in early October. The company said the plan included the first shipment through the Laurel pipeline service after its direction of operation was reversed. Buckeye had reversed the service, which now operates in both directions, according to Citgo's announcement. The announced supply route thus connects gasoline production at Lemont with delivery to customers in the New York market through the modified service. The company announced its use of the route as part of its fuel transportation plan, with early October set as the scheduled arrival date for gasoline deliveries to customers.
The financial and operational developments coincide with the sale process for the company at the top of Citgo's ownership chain. Venezuela's state-owned oil company owns 100% of PDV Holding's shares, according to the corporate structure published on Citgo's website. Amber Energy announced that it had secured approval from a Delaware court to be the buyer of PDV Holding's shares as part of the sale of Citgo's parent company. Amber's announcement made completion of the acquisition contingent on obtaining the necessary regulatory approvals for the transaction and meeting other closing conditions. Those approvals and conditions remain part of the process for completing the sale that Amber outlined in its announcement confirming it as the buyer, while Citgo continues to report its business results and financial forecasts.
On future spending, Citgo announced in September a $310 million project to strengthen the future of its Lake Charles refinery, according to an announcement published on the company's website. The project concerns one of the refining assets in Citgo's network, as the company adjusts the timing of some planned investments. Chief Executive Carlos Jorda had said, in connection with the second-quarter results announcement, that the company was balancing near-term market opportunities with long-term investment priorities, according to Investing. He explained that this balance included adjusting the schedule for some previously planned capital spending as part of managing the company's investment priorities. Jorda said Citgo was working on "deferring some planned investments to 2027."