Iran signals wider maritime pressure after 4.8 million barrels a day disrupted in September
Key Facts
Hossein Mohebbi signaled a widening of Iranian pressure on shipping lanes as the U.S. Energy Information Administration estimated that Middle Eastern crude production shut-ins averaged 4.8 million barrels a day in September. "We have not yet linked the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab al-Mandab Strait and the Suez Canal," he said in an interview with the Tehran Times. He warned that any new U.S. action, even if limited, would trigger a "serious energy crisis," tying his warning to a potential escalation by Washington. The September shut-in estimate was below August's average of 5.8 million barrels a day, according to the U.S. agency, as disruptions in the region eased. Production losses peaked in May at 10.9 million barrels a day, according to the agency's estimates, before declining to September's levels.
In Saudi Arabia, the Energy Information Administration said the East-West pipeline had been repaired following attacks in September. The pipeline resumed partial flows by September 22, restoring part of the disrupted export route, it added. Before the attacks, the pipeline carried oil exports exceeding 5.0 million barrels a day, according to the agency's global oil market report. Those exports passed through the Saudi port of Yanbu, along the transport route the agency linked to the East-West pipeline in its account of supply developments. Alongside the pipeline's repair and partial restart, the agency said Saudi Arabia had increased its use of ship-to-ship cargo transfers off the coast of Oman.
Across the waterways covered by Iran's warning, oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz totaled 4.9 million barrels a day in the second quarter of 2026, according to the Energy Information Administration. Flows through the strait stood at 21.6 million barrels a day in the final quarter of 2025, before the decline recorded between the two periods. At Bab al-Mandab, oil traffic rose to 8.1 million barrels a day in the second quarter of 2026, according to the flow table published by the agency. That compares with 5.4 million barrels a day through Bab al-Mandab in the final quarter of 2025, as flows through the waterway increased. Combined oil flows through the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline totaled 5.8 million barrels a day in the second quarter of 2026.
On the global supply balance, the Energy Information Administration estimated that oil inventories fell by an average of 1.9 million barrels a day in the third quarter of 2026. It forecast further draws in the final quarter of the year, averaging an additional 0.7 million barrels a day, with the pace of decline slowing from the previous quarter. In the U.S. petroleum products market, the agency said East Coast distillate inventories in September were 32% below their seasonal average. That comparison is based on the average for 2021 to 2025, which the agency uses to gauge seasonal inventory levels in the region. The agency expects difficulties in increasing distillate imports sufficiently to bring those inventories closer to normal levels during the winter heating season.
For Middle Eastern production in the period ahead, the Energy Information Administration expects disruptions to persist through the final quarter of 2026, despite the improvement recorded in September. It puts expected shut-ins during that quarter at an average of 4.5 million barrels a day, as part of its estimates for the region's oil supply trajectory. That quarterly estimate is below the average the agency recorded for September, while its forecasts continue to show production remaining shut in during subsequent months. Its production recovery outlook extends into 2027, with the agency expecting most of the region's production to return to pre-conflict averages. It identified the end of the second quarter of 2027 as the expected timing for that return, under its projected recovery path for most regional production.
On the diplomatic front, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi outlined in Baghdad a conditional sequence for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and starting negotiations, according to the Tehran Times. Araghchi tied implementation of the proposal to Iran's conditions being met, saying: "If our conditions are met, the Strait of Hormuz will reopen on day 6, and negotiations will begin on day 7." He said Washington had submitted its views on the proposal and Tehran was reviewing them as part of the diplomatic effort he described. The sequence for reopening the strait and beginning negotiations thus remains part of Iran's proposal, conditional on Tehran's demands being met. The U.S. Energy Information Administration is scheduled to release its next Short-Term Energy Outlook on November 10, 2026.