Brent rises to $110.03 as supply fears resurface amid reports of Houthi attacks

Key Facts

Brent crude futures turned higher on Monday, October 19, reaching $110.03 a barrel, according to Reuters, as supply concerns resurfaced amid reports of attacks claimed by the Houthis. Crude rose 17 cents, or 0.15%, at 17:08 GMT, reversing losses earlier in the session. The Houthis said their targets included an Aramco facility in Yanbu. Saudi authorities did not immediately confirm the claims, which Reuters could not independently verify. The price reversal came as commercial shipping in the region faced mounting threats and crude flows through it declined.

Reuters cited Kpler as saying crude flows through the region fell to about 8.5 million barrels per day during the previous week. Flows had exceeded 20 million barrels per day the week before, ahead of the decline that accompanied escalating threats to commercial shipping. In an incident involving shipping safety in the Strait of Hormuz, the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore said in a statement dated October 14 that the container ship "GFS Giselle" sustained hull damage. The authority said the vessel reached a safe anchorage under its own power. It added that all 22 crew members were safe, with no injuries reported.

In a move aimed at increasing supply, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Friday exempting some Russian energy exports from sanctions and tariffs, according to Reuters. The measure is part of his efforts to lower energy prices following crude's gains during the previous week. An Investing.com website update during trading on Friday, October 16, showed Brent up 4.5% since the start of the week, compared with 10.1% for West Texas Intermediate. On global supply, the International Energy Agency said supplies rose by 2.5 million barrels per day in September from the previous month to 102.3 million barrels per day, led by Gulf producers. On consumption, the agency expects global demand to decline by an average of 2.6 million barrels per day during 2026, driven by expensive fuel and a deteriorating economic outlook.

In the United States, the Energy Information Administration's report released on October 15 showed crude imports fell to 6,049 thousand barrels per day in the week ended October 9. The report compared that with imports of 6,840 thousand barrels per day in the week ended October 2, a weekly decline of 791 thousand barrels per day. Meanwhile, crude inputs to U.S. refineries rose to 16,615 thousand barrels per day from 16,480 thousand, an increase of 135 thousand barrels per day. Distillate inventories fell to 102.6 million barrels from 105.1 million barrels, with a weekly draw of 2.5 million barrels. Gasoline inventories rose to 208.3 million barrels from 204.7 million barrels, with a reported weekly increase of 3.5 million barrels.

In refined products, the International Energy Agency said global diesel exports fell by 700 thousand barrels per day in September from a year earlier. It added in its October Oil Market Report that supply losses from Russia and the Middle East had been only partly offset. In its statement issued on October 15, the agency's Governing Board encouraged members with production and refining capacity to "increase supplies of crude and refined products, particularly diesel". The agency said total stock releases would exceed the original commitment of 400 million barrels. It attributed this to some members having already released, or planning to release, additional volumes.

On next steps, International Energy Agency members agreed to complete the remaining releases, amounting to about 100 million barrels, according to its Governing Board statement. The approval includes volumes yet to be released under the stock drawdowns. On the U.S. data calendar, the Energy Information Administration usually publishes its weekly inventory report on Wednesday. The administration set the regular release time at 10:30 a.m. U.S. Eastern Time. Further out, the International Energy Agency sees the restoration of lost gasoil inventories, beyond normal seasonal fluctuations, as unlikely before the second half of 2027.