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Macro EconomyMedium•19 October 2026•
1 min read

Canada September Inflation Slows to 3.1% Missing Market Estimates

Key Facts

1Canada's annual CPI rose 3.1% in September, coming in lower than the 3.2% expected by markets.
2The Bank of Canada's preferred core measures (CPI-trim and CPI-median) showed a cooling trend, easing rate hike pressures.

Canada's annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.1% in September, coming in lower than the 3.2% expected by markets. According to investinglive.com, the Bank of Canada’s preferred core measures, CPI-trim and CPI-median, showed a cooling trend, which reduces the immediate necessity for further interest rate increases.

Data released on October 19, 2026, showed the annual core inflation rate at 2.2%, missing the 2.4% forecast. The trimmed CPI (CPI-trim) was recorded at 1.8% while the median CPI (CPI-median) stood at 1.9%, suggesting that previous monetary tightening is taking effect. Following the release, the USD/CAD pair rose from 1.4075 to 1.4106 as the lower inflation figures weakened the Canadian dollar.

Markets are now looking ahead to the release of Canadian monthly Retail Sales on October 23, 2026, with forecasts expecting a 0.3% increase following a previous reading of 1.3%.