Cosmos Health Expects $11.5 Million in U.S. Subscription Revenue in Fourth Quarter

Key Facts

Cosmos Health forecast subscription revenue of approximately $11.5 million from its U.S. direct-to-consumer e-commerce business in the fourth quarter of 2026, according to its statement published on Newswire on October 19. The estimates rely on initial orders from new subscribers, alongside revenue from subscription renewals beginning during the quarter, as marketing spending on the U.S. business expands. The company estimated that initial orders would contribute approximately $8.2 million, making new subscriber acquisition the largest component of projected subscription revenue for the period. It expects subscription renewals to add approximately $3.3 million during the same quarter, according to the revenue breakdown in the statement. Alongside subscriptions, it estimated that one-time, non-subscription purchases would contribute approximately $3.5 million.

Cumulative tracked U.S. e-commerce orders reached 14,624 as of the October 19 update, according to the company. Since the subscription platform launched, 65.2% of tracked orders have included a subscription option, in a mix combining that model with one-time purchases. The share of daily orders including a subscription rose to more than 85% in the days preceding the statement, compared with its cumulative share since the platform launched. This shift in the order mix comes as the company's direct-to-consumer business forecasts rely on what it described as a "significantly expanded marketing budget." Cosmos Health described the order and subscription figures from its platform as "preliminary and unaudited" in its U.S. business update.

The company began offering its U.S. subscription model in mid-July 2026, according to an earlier statement published on Newswire about the development of its subscriber base. "Noor Collagen" was the first product the company offered under the model in the U.S. market. The model allows the company to receive an initial order from a subscriber and then generate additional revenue from subscription renewals, the breakdown it used in its fourth-quarter estimates. The monthly subscription value stood at $1,325,338 as of October 19, according to the company's update. Cosmos Health calculated this value using standard renewal prices, while actual renewal revenue collection depends on subscriptions remaining active.

In its earlier subscription statement, Cosmos Health said subscriber retention affects the revenue actually generated when renewals fall due. Factors affecting that revenue include subscription cancellations, which end subscriptions, according to the caveats the company outlined. Renewal revenue is also affected when subscribers choose to pause their subscriptions instead of continuing to receive regular shipments. Subscribers may also choose to skip shipments, which the company likewise listed among the factors affecting actual revenue from the business. These conditions accompany the company's bet on subscription renewals alongside new customer acquisition, with recurring sales dependent on subscriber retention and continued orders.

The U.S. business update follows the group's announcement of preliminary revenue of approximately $54.3 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2026, according to an official filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Group revenue rose 19% during that period compared with the same period a year earlier. The group attributed this growth to contract manufacturing, among the businesses it identified as revenue drivers. It also cited pharmaceutical distribution as a growth driver, alongside its proprietary brands business. These activities place the expansion of U.S. direct-to-consumer sales within the group's portfolio of manufacturing, distribution and proprietary brands, while the nine-month figures cover the group as a whole.

For the remainder of 2026, Cosmos Health reaffirmed its expectation that annual group revenue would exceed $90 million, according to its official filing. In its U.S. subscription business, the company expects active subscriptions to exceed 40,000 by year-end, according to its update published in October. It also expects December to be the strongest month of the fourth quarter for U.S. business revenue as it continues to execute its expanded marketing plan. The company intends to extend the subscription model to other brands in its portfolio after launching it with the collagen product. Its plans also include introducing the model in markets outside the United States, according to its earlier subscription statement.