October Fed Rate Hike Odds Retreat Below 30%

Key Facts

The probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October has dropped below the 30% threshold. Seeking Alpha reported that market pricing for monetary policy has shifted sharply, with the odds of a 25 basis-point increase at the October 28, 2026, FOMC meeting falling to 27.1%.

This shift follows a previous spike in expectations to 54% after inflation data, suggesting a rapid reassessment of the Fed's near-term policy path under Chair Kevin Warsh. This cooling of expectations coincides with recent economic data, including the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate of 3.6% on October 8, 2026, and a decline in Michigan Consumer Sentiment to 46.3 on October 9, 2026.