Central BanksMedium•14 October 2026•
1 min read
Citi Forecasts 25bp Fed Rate Hike in December Following Hot Inflation Data
Key Facts
1Citigroup revised its forecast to now expect a 25bp Fed rate hike in December 2026.
2US Core CPI rose to 2.6% year-on-year, exceeding the 2.5% consensus forecast.
3Markets are currently pricing a 94% probability of a rate hike in December.
Citigroup revised its forecast to now expect a 25 basis point Federal Reserve rate hike in December 2026. Investinglive.com reported that the bank shifted its stance after US Core CPI rose to 2.6% year-on-year, exceeding the 2.5% consensus forecast and indicating that price pressures are spreading beyond energy costs.
Markets are currently pricing a 94% probability of a rate hike during the December meeting. In equity markets, Citigroup shares closed at $124.53 on October 13, 2026, while Bank of America closed at $124.53 and Wells Fargo at $80.74 on the same date. JPMorgan Chase shares recorded a close of $335.28 on October 14, 2026.