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Central BanksMediumUpdated×2•Originally published 15 October 2026•Updated 15 October 2026•
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RBNZ Chief Economist Signals Potential October Rate Hike

Key Facts

1RBNZ Chief Economist Conway stated that the October rate decision remains completely open to all possibilities.
2Conway reaffirmed that the Official Cash Rate is more likely to rise than fall, citing inflation pressures from oil prices.

RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway stated that the October interest rate decision remains completely open to all possibilities. According to reports from investinglive.com, Conway reaffirmed that the Official Cash Rate is more likely to rise than fall, with the bank keeping options open between a hold and a 25-basis-point increase.

Conway highlighted that the central bank is monitoring short-term inflation pressures stemming from oil price fluctuations and movements in the New Zealand dollar. This hawkish stance contrasts with regional peers, particularly as markets scale back rate hike expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia following recent weak employment data.

Latest Updates · 2

  1. Notable·

    Update: The currency market responded to these signals as the New Zealand Dollar rose 0.18% toward the 0.5600 level against the US Dollar on October 15, 2026. This gain was supported by the central bank's hawkish stance alongside a decline in US Treasury yields.

  2. Notable·

    Update: Currency markets reacted positively to these remarks, with the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) rising to a two-week high against the US Dollar on October 15, 2026. The currency rebounded from its lowest levels since April 2025, which were recorded near the 0.5565 region earlier.

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