U.S. crude inventories fall 11.12 million barrels against expectations for a rise

Key Facts

The American Petroleum Institute estimated that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 11.12 million barrels in the week ended October 9, according to OilPrice. The draw ran counter to expectations for a build, reversing the anticipated direction of the change in U.S. crude stocks. Forecasts had pointed to an increase of 1.9 million barrels, according to Investing.com, which described the decline as far exceeding estimates. EL7 previously reported an inventory decline of 2.09 million barrels, also based on the institute's estimates. The draw in the release covered by this report exceeds the decline covered previously, with crude inventories falling in both readings.

In fuel inventories, OilPrice reported that gasoline stocks rose by 1.1 million barrels in the week ended October 7. The increase contrasted with the crude draw, although the two reporting periods had different end dates. Meanwhile, U.S. East Coast distillate fuel inventories were below their seasonal average in September, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's October report. The shortfall was 32% relative to the five-year seasonal average, according to the government report. This places the gasoline inventory build alongside a shortage of distillate stocks on the East Coast, in a picture where petroleum product inventory conditions vary by product, period and region.

On domestic production, U.S. crude output rose to 13.979 million barrels per day in the week ended October 2, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The agency compared that with output of 13.955 million barrels per day in the week ended September 25, marking an increase between the two periods. The production increase preceded the crude inventory draw period covered by the Petroleum Institute's estimates, which ended October 9. On prices, the agency said in its outlook statement issued in early October that Brent crude's spot price averaged $114 per barrel in September. It added that the average was $23 per barrel above its August level, with rising U.S. production accompanied by an increase in the benchmark crude's average price between the two months.

Globally, the International Energy Agency said in its October Oil Market Report that oil supply rose in September, led by Gulf producers. The monthly increase was 2.5 million barrels per day, bringing global supply to 102.3 million barrels per day, according to the agency. In Thursday trading following the news, the two crude benchmarks moved in opposite directions, according to an update published by Investing.com. Brent fell 0.2% to $105.82 per barrel, compared with its higher September average in the Energy Information Administration's estimates. West Texas Intermediate, meanwhile, rose 2.8% to $97.73 per barrel, leaving the two prices moving in different directions in the same update.

The weekly estimates from the American Petroleum Institute and the Energy Information Administration are based on industry surveys, according to the institute's explanation of its weekly bulletin's methodology. The institute said each organization surveys about 90% of the industry, while estimating the remaining 10%. This methodology combines submissions from entities covered by the sample with estimates for activity outside its scope. The institute explained that "sample coverage and the estimation process may differ," contributing to differences in the weekly results published by the two organizations. The institute's reading of inventory changes may therefore differ from the government's reading for the same week depending on survey coverage and the method used to estimate the portion outside the sample.

Looking ahead, the International Energy Agency forecast that the global oil market balance would remain in deficit despite the increase in supply in September. The agency said the market would remain in deficit "through the end of the year," according to its October report. In the United States, the next government inventory report was scheduled for Thursday, October 15, 2026, according to the Energy Information Administration's Columbus Day holiday schedule. The schedule set the release time at 12:00 noon Eastern Time. The scheduled government release covers inventories for the week ended October 9, 2026, the same period in which the American Petroleum Institute estimated the large crude draw.