EL7.AI
Macro EconomyMediumUpdated×8•Originally published 15 October 2026•Updated 15 October 2026•
4 min read

U.S. Producer Price Inflation Accelerates to 6.3% in September, Exceeding Forecasts

Large 3D text reading PPI 6.3% over a US flag map and industrial factory background with a red upward arrow.

Key Facts

1Annual U.S. producer price inflation reached 6.3% in September.
2The index rose 1.3% month on month, compared with a forecast and previous reading of 0.5%, according to the EL7 calendar.
3Final-demand energy prices jumped 10.8% in September.
4The index excluding food, energy and trade services rose 5.0% year on year.

Annual U.S. producer price inflation accelerated to 6.3% in September 2026, according to The Wall Street Journal, exceeding forecasts as goods and services prices rose during the month. The reading was part of the producer price release issued on October 15, which also showed an acceleration in the monthly increase compared with August, according to the EL7 Economic Calendar. The annual rate rose from 5.6% in August, according to Investing.com, putting September's reading above both the previous month and the economists' estimates cited by the website. Those estimates had pointed to annual inflation of 5.3%, a reading below August's rate, before the higher actual result was released. The Wall Street Journal described the annual pace of increase as the fastest "since December 2022," with goods posting a larger monthly increase than services.

On a monthly basis, the headline producer price index rose 1.3% in September, compared with a 0.5% increase in August, according to readings recorded in the EL7 Economic Calendar. The calendar's forecast also called for a 0.5% increase, matching the previous month's pace, while the actual result exceeded both. In a separate survey cited by The Wall Street Journal, economists forecast a monthly increase of 0.6%, an estimate above the calendar's forecast but still below the recorded increase. Economists surveyed by FactSet expected a monthly increase of 0.5%, according to Barron's, matching the forecast in the EL7 calendar. The Wall Street Journal said the monthly rise was the "largest increase since March 2022," a historical comparison concerning price movements during the month.

Within goods, final-demand goods prices rose 2.6% in September, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics release, with energy contributing heavily to the increase. Final-demand energy prices jumped 10.8% month on month, a sharper rise than the increase in the overall goods category during the same period. The bureau attributed more than 80% of the rise in goods prices to energy, making it the largest driver of the increase in this part of the producer price index. Among energy components, the gasoline price index jumped 20.3% during the month, outpacing the broader energy category to which it belongs, according to the official release. The increase in goods prices was thus accompanied by varying rises across its components, with gasoline leading compared with energy overall and goods excluding food and energy.

Outside energy, final-demand food prices rose 1.2% month on month in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a slower pace than the increase in goods overall. Goods excluding food and energy rose 0.3% during the same month, an increase smaller than that recorded by the final-demand food category. Overall food prices rose despite a sharp decline in one component, as the chicken egg price index fell 39.7% from the previous month. While eggs recorded this decline, the broader food category continued to rise, according to the sector breakdown provided by the bureau in its September release. The increase in goods excluding food and energy was also smaller than the rise in the energy category, while component movements ranged from a jump in gasoline to a drop in eggs.

On the services side, final-demand services prices rose 0.8% in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a monthly increase below that recorded for goods prices. Margins for final-demand trade services rose 1.4% month on month, outpacing the increase in the overall services category during the same period. Final-demand transportation and warehousing services prices recorded a larger increase of 3.4%, according to the official release, exceeding trade services margins in terms of the monthly rate of increase. Transportation and warehousing were thus among the services components whose prices rose faster than the broader category, as well as final-demand goods prices overall. Monthly increases covered both transportation and warehousing prices and trade margins, alongside a rise in the services category as a whole, with the pace of increase varying across these components.

Excluding food, energy and trade services, the producer price index rose 0.5% month on month in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a slower pace than the headline index. The index excluding those categories rose 5.0% year on year, also remaining below the annual rate of increase recorded for producer prices overall in September. The index thus rose in both monthly and annual comparisons, even after excluding energy, which accounted for most of the increase in goods prices in the same release. Its monthly increase exceeded the rise in goods prices excluding food and energy alone, a different category from the index that also excludes trade services. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release the October producer price report on November 13, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time.