Brent settles at $106.06 as Aramco strike renews supply risks

Key Facts

Brent crude futures settled at $106.06 a barrel on Wednesday, October 14, amid risks to Saudi supplies after a strike hit an Aramco building in Dhahran, according to Reuters. Crude rose 37 cents, or 0.35%, in a session marked by renewed threats to Saudi oil facilities and regional shipping. The gain followed the previous session's close at $105.69 a barrel, when Brent fell 0.90%, according to Investing's historical price table. West Texas Intermediate crude rose to $95.09 a barrel, its highest level in 3 weeks, according to Reuters. Its daily gain of 95 cents, or 1.01%, exceeded Brent's percentage increase in the same session.

Agence France-Presse quoted a Saudi Energy Ministry official as saying the strike on the Aramco building in Dhahran caused a "limited fire". The Associated Press reported that the attack on the building caused no casualties. Regional officials told the agency the strike damaged the offices of the company's chief executive and other senior officials inside the administrative building. In the Houthis' account of the operation, the group's military spokesman said the targets included Riyadh airport and a refinery in the capital, according to AFP. The developments add to previous attacks on Saudi infrastructure, with Reuters reporting in mid-September that the East-West pipeline, which allows oil exports to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, had been disrupted.

Maritime transport risks extended to the Strait of Hormuz, where shipping authorities said 2 Singapore-registered cargo ships were hit while transiting on Tuesday and Wednesday, according to AP. The authorities described the objects that struck the vessels as "unknown projectiles". The agency cited the Institute for the Study of War's assessment that Iran appeared to be targeting commercial vessels conducting ship-to-ship oil transfers near and around the strait. The institute said the aim of these operations was to undermine energy traffic through the waterway. Oil flows through Hormuz averaged 20 million barrels a day in 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, a level predating the current crisis.

The renewed attacks followed a month-on-month increase in global oil supplies of 2.5 million barrels a day in September to 102.3 million barrels a day, according to the International Energy Agency. Gulf producers led the increase in global supply during the month, the agency said. In a report published by The National in September, Saudi Arabia sold nearly 100 million barrels of oil to Asian buyers in about a week. Aramco Chief Executive Amin Nasser had said at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London earlier in October, before the attack, that "our system is intact", according to the newspaper. In the same remarks, he added that the company could make its maximum sustainable production capacity of 12 million barrels a day available within days.

On the demand side, the IEA forecast global oil consumption would fall by an average of 2.6 million barrels a day in 2026. The agency linked the expected decline to higher fuel prices and a deteriorating economic outlook. Meanwhile, observed global oil inventories at the end of September were 509 million barrels below pre-war levels, according to its report. The inventory shortfall came despite the monthly increase in supplies led by Gulf producers in September. The agency expected the oil market to remain in deficit through the end of the year despite falling demand, with its supply and consumption forecasts continuing to point to a shortfall over the remaining months of 2026.

Looking ahead, the Houthi military spokesman vowed that operations would continue "over the coming days", according to AFP. He said the operations would target Saudi airports and oil facilities. On the diplomatic front, Houthi leader Mohammed al-Bukhaiti told AP that Oman had tried to bring the two sides back to the negotiating table. Aramco is scheduled to announce its third-quarter results on November 3, according to The National. That will be followed by the IEA's next Oil Market Report on November 13, 2026, according to the agency's schedule.