IEA Warns Global Diesel Supply Crunch to Persist Until 2027

Key Facts

1The IEA expects that replenishing lost diesel inventories may not begin before the second half of 2027.

2Diesel exports fell by 700,000 barrels a day year-on-year in September.

3Wholesale diesel prices reached record highs in several major markets due to supply disruptions.

The International Energy Agency expects that replenishing lost diesel inventories may not begin before the second half of 2027. CNBC reported that the global supply crunch is driven by the ongoing conflict in Iran, which has severely disrupted exports and refinery output, pushing wholesale diesel prices to record highs in several major markets.

Diesel exports fell by 700,000 barrels a day year-on-year in September. This tightening of global supply follows data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on October 7, 2026, which showed a decrease in weekly petroleum stocks by 3.186 million barrels, further highlighting the pressure on the energy sector amid persistent supply disruptions.