Bitcoin falls 1.9% as U.S. rate-hike bets rise after inflation data
Key Facts
Bitcoin fell 1.9% to $81,931.2 on the evening of 14 October 2026, after stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation data bolstered bets on an interest rate increase. The cryptocurrency traded at that price at 21:38 GMT, according to Investing.com. Earlier that morning, Reuters reported that the probability of a quarter-percentage-point U.S. rate increase had risen to 46% following the price data. The probability stood at 21.6% before the release, according to data compiled by London Stock Exchange Group and cited by the agency. The repricing of monetary policy expectations followed a September report showing accelerating annual inflation, after the Federal Reserve had already raised rates at its previous meeting.
Annual U.S. inflation rose to 3.7% in September from 3.4% in August, according to Labor Department data reported by the Associated Press. The reading exceeded economists' forecast of 3.6%, according to FactSet figures cited by CBS News. Annual core inflation was 2.6%, compared with expectations of 2.5% in a Reuters poll. Energy was among the main drivers of rising prices, with its monthly increase accelerating to 5.2% in September after a 2.1% rise in August, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Gasoline prices alone jumped 9.1% during the month, accounting for more than half the monthly increase in the consumer price index.
The inflation surprise followed an earlier Federal Reserve decision to raise rates by a quarter of a percentage point. The decision brought the target rate range to 3.75%–4%, according to the U.S. central bank's statement. The Fed said in that statement that "inflation remains elevated." It added that its monetary policy action "will support a faster return to the Committee's 2% objective." The September data thus entered market calculations following earlier monetary tightening and the central bank's reaffirmation of its commitment to returning inflation to target.
The moves in the 14 October session extended to U.S. equities, where technology and communication services led losses, according to Reuters. The Nasdaq Composite closed down 1.88%, while the S&P 500 fell 1.11%. The Dow Jones posted a smaller loss, ending the session down 0.09%. In currency markets, the dollar reached an 18-month high after the inflation release. It later pared gains as investors returned to betting that the Fed would hold off, according to the agency. Can Luca Quymann, an investment strategist at Sygnum Bank, said in comments reported by Investing.com that "higher yields and a stronger dollar pose near-term pressure" on bitcoin.
U.S. bitcoin funds saw a mix of outflows and inflows in the sessions preceding the inflation data. The 7 October 2026 session recorded total net outflows of $484.9 million, according to Farside Investors tables. That included $207.7 million withdrawn from the iShares Bitcoin fund. Demand for the fund then returned in the 13 October session, before the inflation release, with net inflows of $65.9 million. The Fidelity Bitcoin fund attracted inflows of $103.1 million in the same session, meaning the U.S. price reading followed a return of money to those two funds.
The Federal Reserve holds its next meeting on 27–28 October, according to the official Federal Open Market Committee schedule. The meeting comes before the next monthly U.S. inflation reading. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to publish October consumer price data on 10 November 2026. The bureau set the release time at 08:30 a.m. U.S. Eastern Time. Following that release, the Fed's subsequent meeting falls on 8–9 December, according to the central bank's calendar.