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Macro EconomyMediumUpdated×2•Originally published 9 October 2026•Updated 9 October 2026•
1 min read

US October Prelim Consumer Sentiment Falls to 46.3, Missing Forecasts

Key Facts

1The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 46.3 in the October preliminary reading, missing the expected 47.8.
2One-year inflation expectations rose to 4.7%, while five-year expectations ticked up to 3.5%.

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 46.3 in the preliminary reading for October 2026. Reuters reported that the figure missed the consensus estimate of 47.8 and marked a decline from the previous month's reading of 48.1. The drop was driven by a significant miss in the current economic conditions component, which fell to 44.7 against an expected 51.0.

Inflation expectations among US households moved higher, with the one-year outlook rising to 4.7% and the five-year expectation ticking up to 3.5%. This decline in sentiment reflects persistent concerns over gasoline prices and the broader political climate, with overall confidence now 16% below levels seen in February. These findings suggest growing pressure on household finances, potentially complicating the policy path for the Federal Reserve Fed.

Latest Updates · 2

  1. Notable·

    Update: The current economic conditions gauge hit a record low of 44.7 in October 2026, while the expectations index rose for the first time since July to reach 47.3. This month also saw a divergence in political sentiment, as declining confidence among independents offset gains seen among both Democrats and Republicans.

  2. Notable·

    Update: Detailed data showed an unexpected improvement in the Consumer Expectations sub-index, which rose to 47.3 in October 2026 from 46.3 in the previous month. This uptick in forward-looking expectations occurred despite the decline in the headline sentiment figure and the negative assessment of current economic conditions.