Canada Rate Hike Odds Drop to 21% Following Sharp September Job Losses

Key Facts

1The probability of a Bank of Canada rate hike in October dropped to 21% following a loss of 68.3K jobs in September.

2Markets are pricing in an 86% probability of a rate hike by the Bank of England at its next meeting.

3Markets price an 80% probability of no change from the Federal Reserve at its next meeting.

The probability of a Bank of Canada rate hike in October dropped to 21% following the loss of 68.3K jobs in September. Investinglive.com reported that this data significantly missed expectations for a 9.2K gain, reducing the immediate pressure on the central bank to tighten monetary policy.

Markets are currently pricing in an 86% probability of a rate hike by the Bank of England at its next meeting, while the Federal Reserve is seen as 80% likely to hold rates steady. Sentiment was further influenced by President Donald Trump ruling out military strikes against Iran before the midterms, which helped reverse some hawkish pressure on oil prices.

Traders are looking ahead to next week's US CPI report, which could influence global interest rate trajectories. Locally, the Canadian Ivey PMI released on October 6, 2026, had already signaled a slowdown, falling to 58.2 compared to the forecasted 65.2.