Reuters Poll: Oil Volatility Surpasses FX as Top Risk to Japan Corporate Profits

Key Facts

1A Reuters poll showed 37% of Japanese firms see crude oil volatility as the top risk to earnings, ahead of FX moves (21%) and interest rates (19%).

2Japan sourced 94% of its crude imports from the Middle East in 2025, heightening sensitivity to regional conflict and shipping disruptions.

322% of Japanese firms expect to miss their earnings forecasts for the October-to-March half as energy costs rise.

A Reuters poll showed 37% of Japanese firms see crude oil volatility as the top risk to earnings, ahead of foreign exchange moves at 21% and interest rates at 19%. Reuters reported that 22% of Japanese companies expect to miss their earnings forecasts for the October-to-March half of the fiscal year as energy costs rise.

Japan sourced 94% of its crude imports from the Middle East in 2025, heightening corporate sensitivity to regional conflict and shipping disruptions. This concern follows recent economic data where the Tankan Large Manufacturers Index in Japan recorded a reading of 24 on September 30, 2026, missing the forecast of 25.