India's September Inflation Forecast to Hit 5.4% on Rising Energy Costs

Key Facts

1A Reuters poll of 41 economists estimated India's inflation accelerated to 5.4% in September from 4.82% in August.

2The expected rise in CPI is primarily driven by soaring oil prices, energy, and food costs.

A Reuters poll of 41 economists estimated that India's annual retail inflation accelerated to 5.4% in September from 4.82% in August. The expected rise in the Consumer Price Index is primarily driven by soaring oil, energy, and food costs, with individual forecasts ranging from 4.9% to 5.9%.

Reuters reported, citing analysts at ANZ, that energy price pressures are increasingly spilling over into broader CPI components beyond the transport sector. Government data showed the Indian crude oil import basket averaged $116.09 per barrel in September, while analysts at ING suggested the Reserve Bank of India's shift in stance makes near-term interest rate cuts unlikely.