National Bank of Poland Holds Key Interest Rate at 3.75% in October

Key Facts

The Polish Monetary Policy Council kept the NBP reference rate unchanged at 3.75% in October 2026, meeting market expectations. ING reported that the National Bank of Poland maintained a patient approach despite inflation rising to approximately 4.0% year-on-year, as policymakers believe the spike is driven by temporary factors such as fuel prices.

The Council noted in its post-meeting statement that core inflation likely edged down slightly, providing room to refrain from rate hikes for several months while observing the impact of energy shocks. A new risk factor regarding "regulatory decisions concerning energy prices" was added to the outlook, as markets currently price in approximately 100 basis points of future rate increases to prevent entrenched inflation.