Hormuz Crude Flows Recover to 76% as Global Diesel Shortage Persists

Key Facts

1Crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 10.3 million barrels per day, reaching approximately 76% of prewar levels.

2Refined product flows dropped to 11% of total shipments, down from over 20% pre-war, due to damaged refinery infrastructure.

3Saudi crude exports doubled to approximately 7 million barrels per day in September.

Crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 10.3 million barrels per day, reaching approximately 76% of prewar levels according to Kpler data reported by The Wall Street Journal. Reuters reported that the share of refined products in these flows dropped to 11%, down from over 20% prior to the conflict, due to damaged refinery infrastructure. Meanwhile, Saudi crude exports doubled to approximately 7 million barrels per day in September.

The destruction of refining capacity across the Gulf, including plants in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, and Iraq, has decoupled crude supply from fuel availability, keeping diesel prices at record highs. While most crude shipments are currently heading to Asia, major refiners in China, Japan, and South Korea are retaining most of their fuel output rather than exporting it. This divergence suggests downward pressure on crude prices as supply recovers, contrasted with high refining margins and diesel prices due to structural shortages.