Sterling Rallies as UK GDP Data Confirms Economic Resilience

Key Facts

1UK GDP data confirmed economic resilience, supporting the ongoing rally in the British Pound.

2Markets are currently pricing in an 89.2% probability of a Bank of England rate hike in November.

UK GDP data confirmed economic resilience, supporting the ongoing rally in the British Pound against major currencies. ActionForex reported that GDP growth for the second quarter of 2026 was revised up to 0.5% quarter-on-quarter from an initial 0.4% estimate, following a 0.6% expansion in the first quarter.

Markets are currently pricing in an 89.2% probability of a Bank of England rate hike in November, with expectations for a terminal rate near 4.86%. Data released on September 30, 2026, showed broad growth in services by 0.6% and construction by 0.8%, while real household disposable income per head rose 1.0%, the strongest increase since late 2024.

Regarding other economic indicators, UK Consumer Confidence was recorded at -13 on September 24, 2026, performing better than the forecasted -16. Conversely, CBI Distributive Trades data showed retail sales falling to -55 on the same date, reflecting mixed performance across consumer sectors ahead of the upcoming October budget.