Analysts Cut China Q4 Crude Import Forecasts by 400,000 Bpd Amid High Prices

Key Facts

1Analysts expect China's Q4 crude oil imports to drop by 400,000 bpd as oil prices surged above $100 per barrel.

2Independent refiners in China struggle to procure cheap supply amid the near-disappearance of Iranian barrels.

Analysts have lowered their forecasts for China's crude oil imports in the fourth quarter of 2026 by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd). Oilprice.com reported that the downward revision follows a surge in oil prices above the $100 per barrel threshold, which has eroded refining margins and forced a reassessment of procurement strategies.

Independent refiners in China are struggling to secure cheap supply as Iranian barrels have nearly disappeared from the market. According to assessments from FGE NexantECA and Energy Aspects, high freight costs and hefty premiums are deterring both state-owned giants and independent refiners from increasing volumes, following an August import level that was already 23.4% lower than the same period last year.