HelloFresh Sees 2026 Revenue Falling 9% to 11% After Guidance Cut

Key Facts

HelloFresh cut its 2026 revenue outlook and now expects a constant-currency decline of 9% to 11%, against its earlier expectation for a fall near the lower end of a 3% to 6% range. It also reduced its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization forecast to €350 million to €370 million from €375 million to €425 million. The company said the back-to-school season failed to bring in enough new customers to meet its previous outlook. It primarily attributed that shortfall to reduced third-quarter marketing spending. The revision lowers both the sales and profit benchmarks investors had been using for the rest of the year.

The company expects third-quarter revenue to fall 11% to 12% from a year earlier in constant currency. Analyst estimates compiled by HelloFresh had pointed to a 6.8% decline, while revenue fell 9.3% in the corresponding quarter of 2025. The new projection therefore implies a deeper contraction than both the market estimate and the year-earlier rate. These are preliminary expectations, not final quarterly results. The gap matters because weaker revenue reflects fewer orders, lower value per order, or some combination of the two before the effect of costs is considered.

HelloFresh's business depends on acquiring customers and retaining their orders, which makes marketing decisions consequential for later revenue. The company said its year-on-year reduction in third-quarter marketing spending was more pronounced than the reduction in the first half of 2026. In its assessment, the spending level did not bring in enough customers during the important back-to-school acquisition season. That suggests the immediate expense saving did not offset the expected sales shortfall over the rest of the year. The disclosure gave no number for customers missed, so it cannot establish a precise cost per lost acquisition.

The trade-off was visible before the guidance change: second-quarter orders fell to 21.8 million from 25.3 million a year earlier, a decline of 13.7%. HelloFresh said at the time that lower marketing spending was a deliberate part of its focus on higher-value customers. Marketing expenditure fell by €45.2 million and represented 14.9% of revenue, compared with 16.3% in the corresponding quarter. Those figures show that a more restrained marketing budget can coincide with a substantial loss of order volume. The test now is whether orders from established customers can compensate for fewer new ones.

Average order value offered some offset in the second quarter, rising to €71 in constant currency from €66.7 a year earlier, an increase of 6.5%. HelloFresh linked the improvement to product changes, more add-on purchases and a greater share of premium recipes. Higher value per order supports revenue when order counts decline, but it does not guarantee that the decline will be fully covered. The result depends on both the number and value of orders, as well as the group's business mix. That is why the improvement in order value must be read alongside shrinking volume rather than as independent evidence of renewed growth.

HelloFresh expects third-quarter adjusted EBITDA of €45 million to €55 million in constant currency, below the €57.2 million estimate compiled from analysts. The corresponding 2025 figure was about €40 million, but it was reported in actual currency, limiting a direct comparison. With even the top of the new range below consensus, lower spending has not prevented profit expectations from falling short of the market's forecast. Marketing cuts save an expense, but orders that are never acquired cannot contribute revenue or help cover other costs. Final results will show the size of each effect; the current quarterly figures remain preliminary.

For the full year, the projected revenue decline of 9% to 11% compares with the 6.9% analyst average published by HelloFresh. Its new adjusted EBITDA range of €350 million to €370 million compares with an analyst estimate of €375.6 million. Both company forecasts are therefore below the market averages, resetting the benchmark for the remainder of 2026. The comparison does not mean every analyst held the same forecast; each consensus figure is an average of published estimates. For investors, the distance from prior expectations matters alongside the underlying direction of the business.

First-half results show why another revenue disappointment could carry weight in the investment case. Free cash flow was €49.4 million, down from €156.4 million a year earlier, according to HelloFresh's second-quarter results. The company partly attributed weaker first-half profitability to an approximately €25 million one-off winter-storm effect, early spending on product improvements and lower operating volumes. Those drivers distinguish an identified temporary charge from pressure linked to activity levels, which may persist if customer acquisition remains weak. Tracking cash generation alongside order volume therefore gives a fuller picture than marketing savings alone.

For an existing shareholder, the central question is whether HelloFresh can meet its new sales range without further pressure on profit. A prospective buyer would look for evidence that higher order values and purchases by established customers can balance weaker acquisition. An investor expecting further downside may see a sustained order decline as a risk to the €350 million to €370 million adjusted EBITDA range. These are conditional outcomes, not established results or trading recommendations. Lower marketing spending alone would not demonstrate improved customer economics if the number of orders continues to contract.

HelloFresh has scheduled its third-quarter and nine-month results for November 5, 2026, providing the next test of its preliminary assessment. Final figures may differ from the ranges announced in September because those indications were unaudited. The results should establish the actual revenue decline and how close adjusted profit came to its projected range. Comparing orders with average order value will also help show whether the effect of reduced marketing continued beyond the back-to-school season. Stabilizing customer acquisition and improving revenue would support the company's explanation; continued volume declines despite higher order values would weaken it.