Euro Falls Against Dollar as Fed Rate Hike Bets Surge to 70%

Key Facts

In a move reflecting the continued resilience of the US economy, the Dollar strengthened significantly, pushing the EUR/USD pair down toward the 1.1350 zone. According to reports, the probability of back-to-back Federal Reserve rate hikes has surged to 70% following robust PMI data that showed business activity accelerating for a fourth consecutive month. This hawkish shift is supported by Fed officials noting increased risks to reaching the 2% inflation target, necessitating a recalibration of monetary policy.

In the Eurozone, flash PMI numbers exceeded expectations but failed to provide a boost to the Euro, as market participants suggest the ECB's tightening path was already priced in. Per market data, the focus is now shifting toward the high-stakes meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Discussions are expected to cover trade, tariffs, and AI, factors that could further influence global risk sentiment and dollar demand.

As of September 24, 2026, authoritative price levels are unavailable in the current data snapshot, requiring a focus on qualitative trends. Traders should maintain a cautious outlook as the pair tests long-term support levels. With no major Eurozone catalysts listed in the upcoming 7-day economic calendar, market direction will likely be dictated by US political developments and any further shifts in Fed rate expectations.