US Rice Futures Surge as Production Forecast Hits 33-Year Low

Key Facts

1The USDA forecasts US rice production to fall to 158.2 million hundredweight, the lowest level in 33 years.

2CBOT rough rice futures have surged 69% year-to-date, reaching $16 per hundredweight.

3Goldman analysts estimate that El Niño could push global food commodity prices up by more than 15%.

Amid mounting pressure on global food security, grain markets are facing a sharp contraction in US supply that could redefine the trajectory of food inflation. The USDA forecasts domestic rice production to fall to 158.2 million hundredweight, marking its lowest level in 33 years. This decline is primarily driven by a reduction in harvested acreage to levels not seen since the 1972/73 season, which has more than offset improvements in crop yields.

These forecasts have had an immediate impact on markets, with CBOT rough rice futures surging 69% year-to-date to reach $16 per hundredweight. According to reports from Goldman analysts, the El Niño weather pattern could exacerbate these pressures, potentially pushing global food commodity prices up by more than 15%. While the market began the year with 40-year high inventory levels, the USDA notes a significant shift toward a tighter supply situation compared to the previous harvest.

With authoritative price data unavailable as of the September 22, 2026 close, traders are monitoring qualitative price direction as futures approach historical highs. Market participants should watch for broader economic catalysts, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision scheduled for later today, which may influence the US dollar and the subsequent pricing of dollar-denominated agricultural commodities.