Kpler Forecasts Rising Oil Prices Amid Deepening Diesel Crunch and Supply Losses

Key Facts

1Kpler expects oil prices to continue grinding higher due to six and a half months of Middle East supply losses.

2Oil prices have risen roughly $30 per barrel since early August.

3Kpler estimates roughly 8.5 million barrels per day of oil production has been lost during the conflict.

Amid escalating geopolitical tensions, energy data firm Kpler forecasts that oil prices will continue to grind higher due to significant supply losses from the Middle East spanning six and a half months. According to reports, the ongoing conflict has resulted in an estimated loss of 8.5 million barrels per day in oil production, placing immense pressure on gasoline and diesel markets. These projections follow a period where oil prices have already risen by approximately $30 per barrel since early August, driven by sharp cuts in refinery runs and supply constraints.

Market data indicates that the diesel fuel crunch has emerged as a primary pain point for the energy sector, with rising costs impacting trucking, agriculture, and manufacturing. Kpler estimates that the scale of production losses and reduced refinery activity is preventing the typical seasonal drop in fuel prices that usually follows the end of the summer driving season. Furthermore, export restrictions from major global producers are exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance, providing sustained support for higher price levels despite short-term volatility.

As of September 17, 2026, energy markets remain focused on the trajectory of the conflict and its impact on critical supply infrastructure. In the absence of current spot price data in this update, traders are monitoring broader economic catalysts, such as the U.S. annual inflation rate which held at 3.4% as of September 11. Monitoring global production levels and geopolitical developments will remain the essential driver for crude oil prices and refined product margins in the coming weeks.