EL7.AI
CommoditiesMediumUpdated•Originally published 14 September 2026•Updated 14 September 2026•
2 min read

Hormuz Disruption Keeps Liquefied Natural Gas Price Risks Elevated Before Winter

Key Facts

1The Hormuz disruption affected about 20% of global liquefied natural gas supply, mostly from Qatar.
2TTF averaged about $14.74 in the first half of 2026 versus $13.10 in the first half of 2025, while JKM averaged $15.56, up $2.38.
3Slightly more than 112 billion cubic metres of liquefied natural gas moved through Hormuz in 2025, equal to about 20% of global trade.
4Non-Gulf liquefied natural gas output rose 18%, or 27 billion cubic metres, and offset 75% of the Gulf decline between March and June 2026, but global output fell 4%, or 8 billion cubic metres.

Liquefied natural gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain severely disrupted after the de facto closure that began on February 28, 2026. The International Energy Agency’s latest chokepoint-monitor update, dated September 9, 2026, said the crisis was still impeding gas flows, making severe disruption more accurate than a complete halt to all shipping.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that the March disruption removed about 20% of global liquefied natural gas supply, mostly from Qatar, and pushed international prices higher. Continued restrictions therefore present upside risk for Asian and European markets before winter, even though no single real-time price represents the entire global market.

Data published on September 1 show the impact already recorded. Europe’s TTF benchmark averaged $14.74 per million British thermal units in the first half of 2026, up from $13.10 in the first half of 2025. Asia’s JKM benchmark averaged $15.56, an increase of $2.38 from the comparable period.

The market is especially exposed because Gulf supply is difficult to replace. Slightly more than 112 billion cubic metres of liquefied natural gas moved through Hormuz in 2025, equal to about 20% of global trade, and the International Energy Agency says there is no alternative route capable of quickly carrying Qatari and Emirati exports to the global market.

The direct exposure is concentrated in Asia, which received almost 90% of the liquefied natural gas exported through Hormuz in 2025, compared with just over 10% for Europe. The pricing effect nevertheless reaches both regions because the Gulf shortfall intensifies competition for flexible spot cargoes.

New production outside the Gulf has absorbed part of the shock without eliminating it. Between March and June 2026, non-Gulf liquefied natural gas output rose about 18%, or roughly 27 billion cubic metres, offsetting about 75% of the decline in Gulf loadings. Global production still fell 4%, or 8 billion cubic metres, year on year during the period.

The International Energy Agency’s July report assumed the strait would fully reopen during the third quarter of 2026 and that undamaged facilities would restore operations by early in the fourth quarter, but it stressed that the timing of normal flows remained uncertain. Important market signals will be sustained liquefied-natural-gas-carrier transits, recovering Qatari and Emirati loadings, and movements in TTF and JKM as winter approaches.