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Central BanksMediumUpdated•Originally published 14 September 2026•Updated 14 September 2026•
2 min read

Bank of England Seen Holding at 3.75% on September 17 Despite Energy Risks

Key Facts

1All 65 economists in the Reuters poll expect Bank Rate to remain at 3.75% on September 17, 2026.
2The committee voted 6–3 to hold in July, with the 3 dissenters preferring a 0.25-percentage-point increase to 4%.
3Inflation was 2.9% in July against a 2% target, with the August reading due September 16.
4A total of 57 of 65 economists expected no change through end-2026, while markets priced a 70% probability of a hike by November.

The Bank of England is expected to keep Bank Rate at 3.75% on September 17, 2026, with all 65 economists surveyed by Reuters from September 4 to 8 forecasting no change. That is a consensus on the immediate decision, not on the rate path beyond it.

Longer-term forecasts diverge from market pricing. A total of 57 of 65 economists expected rates to remain unchanged through the end of 2026, while 8 forecast an increase to 4.00%. Markets, however, priced a 70% probability of a hike by the November meeting on September 9 after oil exceeded $100 a barrel.

The Bank is not presenting a rate increase as a predetermined move. Governor Andrew Bailey told the Treasury Committee on September 8 that the rising market curve reflected a risk premium attached to a persistent energy shock, stressing that this was a conditional assessment rather than a signal that a hike was inevitable.

The split within the Monetary Policy Committee remains important for markets. At the meeting ending July 29, members voted 6–3 to keep Bank Rate at 3.75%, with the 3 dissenters preferring a 0.25-percentage-point increase to 4%. The vote shows a tightening constituency within the committee, but not yet a majority.

UK consumer-price inflation was 2.9% in July against the Bank's 2% target, and the August reading is due on September 16, one day before the decision. The Bank says costlier energy can lift inflation directly through fuel and utility bills and indirectly as companies pass higher costs through supply chains.

The concern was already visible in UK assets on September 9: the 2-year gilt yield reached 4.629% and the 5-year yield 4.727%, while the FTSE 100 fell 0.42% and the FTSE 250 declined 0.29%. The decision and subsequent path will depend on the energy shock's duration and its transmission into wages and prices; the Bank said in July that evidence of such second-round effects remained limited, and the outcome of the meeting ending September 16 will be published the next day.