Goldman Sachs Forecasts Fed Rate Hike Following Strong Core Inflation Data

Key Facts

1Goldman Sachs revised its forecast to predict a Fed rate hike next week following strong August core inflation data.

In a move reflecting a sudden shift in monetary policy expectations, Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast to predict a Federal Reserve rate hike at next week's meeting. According to reports, this adjustment follows August core inflation data which rose by 0.3% month-over-month, exceeding the 0.2% consensus. The bank's economic team now anticipates a 25-basis-point hike, as persistent inflationary pressures have led markets to price in a nearly 90% probability of an increase.

This forecast comes amid relative stability in banking sector equities, with Goldman Sachs (GS) shares closing at $1,029.18 on September 11, 2026. Per market data, peer institutions saw varied levels on the same date, with JPMorgan closing at $356.23 and Bank of America at $62.69, while Morgan Stanley reached $214.38. These movements reflect investor caution regarding the interest rate trajectory and its subsequent impact on borrowing costs and market liquidity.

Looking ahead, traders are focused on the FOMC meeting scheduled for September 20, 2026, for official confirmation of the rate path. With GS stock currently positioned near its September 11 close of $1,029.18, upcoming inflation metrics remain the primary catalyst for decisions led by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Investors will be watching for further signals regarding the sustainability of the tightening cycle and its impact on high-risk assets.