MEG-China TD3C VLCC Benchmark Sets Record at $862,150 a Day

Key Facts

The MEG-China TD3C benchmark for VLCC oil tankers rose to a record $862,150 a day on September 10, according to Baltic Exchange data reported by specialist shipping sources. The theoretical return increased 13.4% in two sessions from $759,969 on September 8.

The figure is a time-charter-equivalent, or TCE, calculated under standardized assumptions for a voyage carrying 270,000 tonnes of crude between the Gulf and China. It is not a confirmed daily hire for every vessel or net profit: actual returns vary with fuel, insurance, waiting time, commissions and individual charter terms.

On the separate Gulf of Oman-China route, the assessment reached about Worldscale 450, equivalent to roughly $11.50 a barrel, the highest since the route was introduced earlier in 2026. Loading outside the Strait of Hormuz reduces direct transit exposure but does not eliminate regional risk or transfer bottlenecks.

The surge followed renewed maritime escalation. U.S. Central Command, or CENTCOM, said its forces destroyed 5 IRGC crude carriers on September 8 after directing their crews to abandon ship. On September 9, Iran said it attacked 10 vessels near the Strait of Hormuz; Reuters described the exchange as the largest declared wave of reciprocal shipping attacks since the war began in late February.

Rates are rising because the number of vessels physically present exceeds the pool commercially willing and operationally able to enter a high-risk area. Much of the crude has shifted to shuttle tankers that cross Hormuz and transfer cargo ship-to-ship outside the strait, adding waiting time, consuming more vessel-days and reducing effective capacity.

The repricing spread to other VLCC routes on September 10: the West Africa-China TD15 TCE reached about $353,642 a day, Gulf of Oman-China TD34 reached $465,764 and U.S. Gulf-China TD22 reached $257,059. Their simultaneous rise indicates that disruption at Hormuz is reallocating VLCCs across basins rather than affecting only one trade.

The jump compounds a prolonged disruption. In its Q2 report, TORM said the conflict and closure of the Strait of Hormuz materially disrupted global oil-trade flows, while the ceasefire's collapse in early Q3 led to another effective closure alongside disruption at Bab el-Mandeb.

Higher freight costs could pass part of the transport shock to Asian refiners and then to businesses and consumers if sustained, but the inflationary effect will depend on the disruption's duration, crude prices and alternative supply routes. The market will watch transit security, insurance and crew availability, waiting times and the pace of ship-to-ship transfers; improvement could ease rates, while broader attacks could keep effective capacity constrained.