European Gas Nears €75, Hits Highest Since January 2023 as Storage Lags

Key Facts

Benchmark European natural-gas futures rose nearly 3% to about €75 per megawatt-hour on Tuesday morning, reaching their highest level since early January 2023. The advance reflected mounting concern over limited liquefied-natural-gas cargo availability and low inventories ahead of the heating season.

Gas Infrastructure Europe data showed European Union storage at 67.12%, equivalent to 759.52 terawatt-hours, at 6:00 a.m. Central European Summer Time on September 8. Although the level trails previous years, the European Commission said the bloc faces no immediate security-of-supply risk.

Europe and Asia compete for the same flexible liquefied-natural-gas cargoes. When Asian prices offer a better return than European prices, shipments tend to move east, prompting European buyers to bid higher to attract the supplies needed to replenish storage.

In a scenario where Middle East energy supplies do not gradually normalize before 2027, December 2026 Dutch benchmark gas futures may need to exceed €100 per megawatt-hour to curb Asian demand and draw additional cargoes to Europe, according to Goldman Sachs. That is a conditional estimate, not a firm price target.

The European Commission offered a less alarmist supply assessment on September 3, citing supplier diversification, expanded liquefied-natural-gas import capacity and lower demand as sources of resilience. It also said Qatari liquefied-natural-gas production remained shut and conditions in the Middle East were unstable.

The price outlook will depend heavily on storage injections, the return of Qatari production, tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz and the price gap between Europe and Asia. Improving flows could ease price pressure, while prolonged disruption could tighten the liquefied-natural-gas balance and sustain volatility.