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CommoditiesMediumUpdated•Originally published 9 September 2026•Updated 9 September 2026•
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Sinopec Research Sees China’s Apparent Oil Demand Down 8.9%, or 600,000 bpd, in 2026

Key Facts

1Sinopec research expects China's apparent oil demand to fall 8.9%, or 600,000 barrels per day, in 2026.
2Sinopec forecasts gasoline demand down 8.7% to 149 million tons and diesel down 11.4% to 164 million tons, while jet fuel rises 1.3% to 41.55 million tons.
3In the first half of 2026, domestic refined-product consumption fell 8.6%, while Sinopec's domestic product sales dropped 9.2% to 79 million tons from 87.05 million tons.

Sinopec’s Economics and Development Research Institute expects China’s apparent oil demand to fall 8.9% year on year in 2026, equivalent to about 600,000 barrels per day. If realized, it would be a third consecutive annual decline.

Road fuels are expected to lead the contraction. Gasoline consumption is forecast to drop 8.7% to 149 million metric tons and diesel demand 11.4% to 164 million tons. Jet-fuel demand, by contrast, is projected to rise 1.3% to 41.55 million tons.

The revision matters because China is the world’s largest oil importer. Reuters reported that demand erosion has become a factor capping the country’s crude imports and global prices, although weaker consumption alone does not guarantee lower prices when supplies are disrupted.

The forecast is consistent with Sinopec’s first-half 2026 data. Domestic refined-product consumption fell 8.6% year on year, with gasoline down 7.9% and diesel down 11.5%, while jet fuel rose 1.3%.

The weakness was also visible in Sinopec’s operations. Refinery throughput declined 5.6% to 113.31 million tons from 119.97 million tons, while domestic refined-product sales fell 9.2% to 79 million tons from 87.05 million tons.

Sinopec links the trend to two overlapping forces: high oil prices restraining consumption and faster substitution by new energy in transport. That helps explain why gasoline and diesel lead the decline while recovering travel provides separate support for jet fuel.

The next test is whether road-fuel weakness persists through the second half. Sinopec expects domestic refined-product demand to remain affected by alternative energy, while supply shifts and geopolitical risks leave the direction of crude prices uncertain.