Soft Sweden Inflation Dents Riksbank September Hike Bets

Key Facts

1Soft inflation data in Sweden has led markets to lower the probability of an interest rate hike in September.

2Markets are awaiting the release of the US NFIB small business optimism index for August.

Reflecting a significant cooling in Nordic price pressures, soft inflation data in Sweden has led markets to lower the probability of an interest rate hike in September. According to reports, the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.28% year-on-year, coming in below analyst expectations. This data has prompted a sharp repricing of Riksbank policy expectations, effectively erasing much of the implied probability for a rate hike at the upcoming meeting.

In a broader context, global markets are now awaiting the release of the US NFIB small business optimism index for August to gauge the resilience of the American economy. Per market data, European equities remained largely unchanged with the Stoxx 600 finishing flat, while the OMX Nordic index gained 0.4%. The lower-than-anticipated Swedish inflation print has put upward pressure on the EUR/SEK cross, contrasting with the Norwegian Krone which found support from rising energy prices.

Looking ahead, investors are monitoring SEK volatility following the inflation miss, as of the market close on September 8, 2026. Upcoming catalysts include Chinese inflation figures and further US economic sentiment data, which will be crucial in determining whether the current shift in monetary policy expectations extends across other major economies.