Asia Set to Take 70% of Canadian Oil Exports by 2028 via Pipeline Expansion

Key Facts

1Asia, led by China, is expected to purchase 70% of Canadian crude oil exports by the end of 2028.

2Canada plans to expand its only pipeline providing access to Asia by one-third to boost market reach.

In a move reflecting a strategic shift in global energy flows, Asia is poised to dominate Canadian crude oil exports over the coming years. According to industry reports, Asia—led by China—is expected to purchase 70% of Canada's crude exports by the end of 2028. This transition is primarily driven by Canada's efforts to diversify its export reach and capitalize on rebounding demand across the Pacific region.

The fulfillment of this outlook hinges on infrastructure development, as Canada plans to expand the capacity of its only pipeline providing access to Asia by one-third. This expansion comes amid a steady domestic manufacturing environment; per market data, the Canadian Manufacturing PMI stood at 53 on September 1, 2026, slightly outperforming the forecast of 52.7 and supporting the broader industrial outlook.

Looking ahead, market participants will monitor how this structural expansion impacts Canada's trade balance, especially following the Bank of Canada's decision to hold interest rates at 2.25% in early September 2026. While specific instrument prices are currently unavailable, future catalysts include weekly petroleum inventory reports and ongoing updates regarding Chinese industrial demand levels.