EL7.AI
CommoditiesMediumUpdated•Originally published 7 September 2026•Updated 8 September 2026•
2 min read

Fuel-Oil Deficit Forecast at 218,000 bpd in Q3 2026 as Refiners Favor Diesel

Key Facts

1Energy Aspects forecasts a 218,000-bpd deficit in Q3 2026, versus 6,000 bpd in Q3 2025.
2Singapore consumes nearly 1 million bpd and imports more than 50% of its fuel-oil requirements.
3Inventories at 3 major hubs fell about 30% against their 3-year seasonal averages.
4Singapore VLSFO rose 76% to just under $825 per metric ton, or about $130 per barrel, on September 1.
5Middle East exports fell 45% to an average of 447,000 bpd between March and August.

Energy Aspects forecasts a global fuel-oil deficit of 218,000 barrels per day in Q3 2026. The company's last estimated deficit was 6,000 bpd in Q3 2025. Fuel oil is used by ships and power plants, while wars are disrupting refinery operations and tanker traffic.

The expected deficit reflects more than refinery outages and constrained supply routes. Refineries with secondary processing units can use fuel oil as feedstock to produce diesel, gasoline and jet fuel, and stronger margins for those products encourage them to reduce volumes available to the bunker market.

Asia appears most exposed because of its reliance on Gulf supplies. Singapore, the world's largest bunker hub, consumes nearly 1 million barrels per day of fuel oil and imports more than 50% of that volume.

The pressure is already visible in inventories and prices. Fuel-oil stocks in Singapore, Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp and Fujairah fell about 30% below their 3-year seasonal averages. Singapore VLSFO rose 76% after the Iran war began, reaching just under $825 per metric ton, or about $130 per barrel, on September 1. Brent crude rose about 40% over the same period.

Russian fuel-oil exports were 591,000 barrels per day in August, versus an average exceeding 860,000 barrels per day in 2025. Middle East exports averaged 447,000 barrels per day between March and August, a 45% year-on-year decline.

Higher bunker costs could raise freight rates because longer routes avoiding the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb increase fuel consumption. Continued market tightness in Q3 2026 will depend on the duration of refinery disruptions, export constraints and shipping-route diversions.