Bessent Predicts $40 Oil and Lower Treasury Yields Following Iran Conflict

Key Facts

1US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicted crude oil prices could hit $40 per barrel following the conflict with Iran.

2Bessent indicated expectations for lower bond yields as part of the post-war economic fallout.

Amid major geopolitical shifts reshaping global energy markets, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has issued bold forecasts regarding the future of prices. According to reports, Bessent predicts crude oil prices could hit $40 per barrel following the conclusion of the conflict with Iran. The Secretary expects this sharp decline to coincide with a drop in US Treasury yields as part of the post-war economic restructuring.

These forecasts arrive as markets weigh how shifts in energy supply chains and safe-haven flows will impact inflation expectations. Based on the Treasury's outlook, the end of hostilities could trigger strong downward pressure on oil prices, potentially altering the trajectory of monetary policy and yields in the sovereign debt market. Such statements from a high-level official signal a potential radical shift in global energy costs.

As of September 5, 2026, specific instrument price levels are unavailable; however, markets are closely monitoring supply stabilization signals. Looking at recent economic data, global inflationary pressures have shown mixed results, such as Germany's inflation rate hitting 2.9% in August, making Bessent's forecast of lower oil prices a critical factor to watch for future inflation trends.