Bitcoin Hits $79,442 Low as Fed Hike Odds Rise to 60.4%
Key Facts
EL7's September 5, 2026 BTCUSD bar recorded a $79,442 low and an $80,200 high before closing at $79,754.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 162,000 increase in nonfarm payroll employment in August and a 4.1% unemployment rate. A FactSet poll reported by the Associated Press had forecast an increase of 65,000 jobs.
Markets repriced the monetary-policy path after the report. The probability of a September rate hike rose to 60.4% on Friday from 49.4% on Thursday, according to CME FedWatch figures reported by the Associated Press. Treasury yields rose while U.S. stocks declined.
Bitcoin's move coincided with the jobs report and a repricing of the rate path, so the report may have been one contributing factor. The available evidence does not establish it as the sole cause.
CME FedWatch derives its probabilities from 30-Day Fed Funds futures prices, so it measures traders' expectations rather than announcing a Federal Reserve decision. Higher rates can increase returns available on lower-risk dollar assets and the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset such as Bitcoin.
The Federal Reserve meets on September 15–16, 2026, while the August consumer price index is due on September 11, 2026. Inflation data and policymaker comments may change rate probabilities, yields and risk appetite before the decision.
Latest Updates · 6
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Update: Technical data reveals a shift in Bitcoin's market behavior, as its 90-day correlation with gold has climbed above 0.50, reaching its highest level since 2020. This trend indicates that Bitcoin is increasingly trading in alignment with gold rather than U.S. technology stocks, supporting the narrative of the digital asset acting as a store of value amid broader market volatility.
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Update: Alongside macroeconomic factors, on-chain data reveals that Bitcoin holders recently cashed out 110,000 BTC in profits. This surge in supply has intensified selling pressure, contributing to the asset's inability to maintain levels above key psychological resistance.
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Update: Recent data shows U.S. core inflation has dropped to 3%, providing fresh context ahead of the September 16, 2026, Federal Reserve meeting. Traders are now watching whether this cooling inflation will temper the rate-hike bets that have recently weighed on Bitcoin's price.
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Update: From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's price faced a rejection at the $82,400 level, shifting the asset into a post-breakout consolidation phase. Buyers are currently struggling to generate sustained momentum above the $80,000 mark despite a generally constructive broader trend.
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Update: On the technical front, Bitcoin faced a rejection at the $82,281 level prior to its recent slide. This price action establishes the $78,500-$80,000 zone as a critical focal point for market volatility in the coming sessions.
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Update: Countering economic data pressures, Bitcoin ETFs recorded strong inflows of $731 million, providing price support amid market volatility. However, expectations for a potential Fed rate hike have increased following the robust employment figures, impacting broader risk appetite across the crypto market.