US Payrolls Expected to See First Upward Benchmark Revision Since 2022

Key Facts

In a move that reflects a potentially more resilient labor market than previously estimated, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is set to release its preliminary benchmark revision for nonfarm payrolls. According to reports, the agency is expected to revise March 2026 employment levels higher by a range of 50,000 to 450,000 jobs. This would mark the first upward adjustment since 2022, following several years of significant negative revisions that had weighed on economic sentiment.

The anticipated revision stems from Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data, which suggests that initial payroll surveys underestimated job growth between April 2025 and March 2026. Per market data and analyst insights, a revision of this scale could lift the average monthly payroll growth pace to between 30,000 and 65,000, up from the currently reported 25,000. Analysts suggest this reflects ongoing issues with initial administrative record submissions that inform the QCEW.

While current instrument prices are unavailable for this snapshot, investors are closely monitoring these revisions alongside remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Looking at the economic calendar, US Gross Domestic Product was reported at 1.5% for the quarter as of August 26, 2026. Traders should watch for how a stronger labor market backdrop influences the Fed's policy trajectory in the coming months.