EL7.AI
CommoditiesMedium•28 August 2026•
2 min read

Gulf Oil Exports Recover to Two-Thirds of Pre-War Levels Amid Iran Conflict

Key Facts

1Oil volumes moving out of the Persian Gulf have recovered to about two-thirds of pre-war levels.
2Between 15 million to 16 million bpd are leaving the Middle East, up 5-6 million bpd from the March trough.

Amid ongoing geopolitical pressures in the region, global energy supplies have demonstrated remarkable resilience as producers adapt to shipping risks. According to reports from Goldman Sachs and Bloomberg, oil volumes exiting the Persian Gulf have recovered to approximately two-thirds of their levels recorded before the conflict with Iran. Innovative logistical solutions, including ship-to-ship transfers and bypass tactics implemented by Qatar and Kuwait, have facilitated a significant restoration of regional export capacity.

Current data indicates that between 15 million and 16 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude and petroleum products are now leaving the Middle East, marking a substantial increase of 5 to 6 million bpd from the trough seen in March. While these volumes remain about 7 to 8 million bpd below February levels, the recovery of flows through the Strait of Hormuz to nearly 70% of normal capacity acts as a ceiling for global oil prices, offsetting the geopolitical risk premium.

Looking ahead, updated price data for related instruments was unavailable at the close of August 28, 2026, leaving market outlooks dependent on supply chain stability. From an economic perspective, data released on August 25 showed a 4.2 million barrel increase in US API crude oil stocks, which exceeded forecasts and may compound downward pressure on prices alongside the rising Gulf supply.