Goldman Sachs Sees September Fed Hike Unlikely as Inflation Cools

Key Facts

In a move reflecting shifting expectations for U.S. monetary policy, Goldman Sachs analysts have signaled that a Federal Reserve rate hike in September is now highly unlikely. According to reports, this dovish shift is driven by weak retail sales and slowing inflation data, leading the bank to adopt a more optimistic stance. Analysts suggest that current market expectations for the Fed funds rate may be too aggressive given the cooling economic indicators observed recently.

This outlook arrives as market data shows varied performance among major financial institutions, with Goldman Sachs (GS) closing at $1,039.42 on August 14, 2026. Per market data, peer institutions such as JPMorgan Chase (JPM) closed at $1039.42, while Morgan Stanley (MS) stood at $217.35 as of the same date. The bank's commentary is seen as a supportive signal for risk assets, as the probability of further monetary tightening appears to diminish in the eyes of major institutional players.

Investors are currently monitoring GS stock, which sat at $1,039.42 at the close of August 14, 2026, within a daily range of $1,029.58 to $1,043.74. Market participants will be looking for further catalysts following the recent U.S. inflation report on August 12, which showed the annual CPI rate at 3.4%, aligning with the cooling trend cited by Goldman Sachs as a reason for the Fed to remain on hold.