Rystad Energy Cuts Russia Oil Production Forecast for 2026 Amid Sanctions

Key Facts

Amid escalating geopolitical pressures on global energy supplies, Rystad Energy has revised its forecast for Russian crude oil production for 2026. According to reports, production is now expected to average 8.95 million barrels per day (bpd), representing a decline of 90,000 bpd from previous estimates. This downward revision reflects the cumulative impact of tighter international sanctions and persistent disruptions at refineries, ports, and tankers.

Data indicates that Russia's processing capacity has been significantly hindered, with refinery runs in June and July hitting some of the lowest levels recorded in two decades. Per Rystad Energy, disruptions at western Russian export terminals and rising risks to seaborne exports have made deliveries less reliable and more expensive. Furthermore, aging wells and a lack of major new greenfield developments are expected to limit the country's ability to offset natural declines in mature fields.

In the global markets, traders are looking ahead to the OPEC Monthly Report scheduled for August 12, 2026, for further clarity on supply-demand balances. While current price levels are unavailable at this close (August 15, 2026), the lower production outlook from a major global producer is generally viewed as a supportive factor for prices, especially as the market awaits the US API Crude Oil Stock Change data on August 11.