EL7.AI
ForexMedium•8 August 2026•
1 min read

Weak US Jobs Data Shifts Fed Expectations Amid Oil Market Volatility

Key Facts

1July's weak Non-Farm Payroll report shifted September Fed expectations toward a hold.
2Brent crude holding above $80 and the Strait of Hormuz crisis prevented a full dovish repricing.

In a move reflecting a potential slowdown in US economic momentum, the Non-Farm Payroll report for July came in significantly weaker than anticipated. According to reports, this unexpected cooling in the labor market has caused a major shift in investor sentiment, with markets now pricing in a higher probability that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady in September.

Despite the weak economic data, a full dovish repricing was limited by Brent crude oil prices holding firmly above the $80 per barrel mark. Geopolitical tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz crisis continue to act as a counterweight, preventing a sharp decline in Treasury yields and the Dollar as energy-driven inflation risks remain elevated.

Looking ahead, traders are monitoring Brent crude which closed the week at $82.37, remaining well above its July lows.